Documents and Studies

The national spatial plan “Estonia 2050” is the country’s long-term strategy for spatial development. The plan establishes the framework for decisions that have a spatial dimension, influencing the use and development of land, natural resources, and living environments. Its goal is to ensure that Estonia’s space develops in a balanced, resilient, and high-quality manner, based on shared values and national interests. The plan provides the foundational structure for sectoral development strategies, the preparation of national and local plans, and public sector investments, making it a central tool for managing spatial development.

The spatial development of settlements must follow the principles of spatial policy and apply different guidelines for directing settlement development in growing and shrinking areas.

Estonia’s population as a whole is declining, but unevenly across regions. By 2050, the population will decrease by more than 25% in 41 out of 79 municipalities, and in 9 municipalities by more than 50%. Due to the existing age-gender structure and the continuation of current migration trends, the population will decline most in Ida-Viru County and the peripheral areas of Southeast Estonia, as well as in strong county towns—Viljandi and Rakvere—by up to 30%.

At the same time, the surroundings of larger cities, especially the capital region, are growing. New suburban areas have emerged, strongly linked to their central city through daily commuting. Growing municipalities face demand for new housing, production and commercial buildings, and services, increasing pressure on land use. In shrinking settlements, many services lose sufficient local demand, creating pressure to significantly reduce service networks, accompanied by the abandonment of previously used buildings and infrastructure.

To curb suburban sprawl and design more sustainable spaces, different planning guidelines are being developed for growing and shrinking areas to support a high-quality living environment: spatially compact development, diversity, and accessibility.

Sustainable land use and the reduction of land take will increasingly be guided by the land take hierarchy model stemming from the Soil Monitoring and Resilience Directive (approved by the European Parliament on October 23, 2025).

Estonia has three years to transpose the directive.

The purpose of the study is to provide a knowledge-based foundation for the principles of spatial development of settlements defined in the national spatial plan and for making strategic choices that guide the future development of Estonia’s settlement system. The study is based on Estonia’s regional population forecast.

The study also examines how the spatial distribution of the population and multi-local living affect resource consumption and environmental impact. It further interprets the use of dense and dispersed settlement patterns from the perspectives of environmental impact and civil protection.

• The current land-use pattern and continuation of existing trends are neither sustainable nor regionally balanced. When preparing the national spatial plan, it is necessary to consider alternative settlement development scenarios—their impacts and feasibility.
• Balanced settlement development requires at least ten economically strong and evenly distributed anchor cities across Estonia, offering jobs and essential higher-level services (such as tertiary education institutions and theaters) to residents of both the cities and surrounding areas.
• A comparison of four future settlement development scenarios shows that, alongside the capital region, the best path for the national economy involves significant contributions from the urban regions of Tartu, Pärnu, and Ida-Viru County.
• More balanced development is supported by a clearer regional role distribution: international, regional, and local cities, complemented by small centers and rural areas.
• Realizing young people’s residential preferences would lead to a more even distribution of youth across Estonia’s diverse living environments.
• It is crucial to act as quickly as possible because the more extensive the concentration of population in the capital becomes, the harder it will be to ensure demographically and economically sustainable development in other regions of Estonia. Internal demographic regeneration capacity exists only in Tallinn and Tartu. Most of Estonia’s settlements lack internal regeneration capacity, and population growth can only be achieved through migration.
• The most sustainable development path is offered by spatially compact settlement, which helps ensure better connectivity with anchor cities and, consequently, better access to jobs and services throughout Estonia.
• Growing and shrinking settlements require spatial interventions that support both their compact development and the creation of a high-quality living environment.